In 2021, the German electric vehicle (EV) market was second only to China, with 681,410 units registered and an annual growth rate of 72.8%, making it the second-largest EV sales country globally and the largest in Europe. The concentration of the German EV market is already relatively high and the top nine OEMs had a combined share of 97.1% in the EV market, not much different from 97.3% in 2020. In terms of OEMs’ market share in battery electric vehicle (BEV), the total of the top nine was as high as 97.4% in 2021, only slightly lower than 97.7% in 2020. Overall, only a small number of automakers grew their market share in Germany in 2021, with Stellantis, Tesla, and Ford leading the pack.

It is worth noting that the EV market began to lose its triple-digit growth in July, with annual growth dropping to 55.0%, and then to 13.3% in October, and even a record negative growth rate of 1.8% in December. We recommend a cautious view of this year’s German EV market, which is currently estimated at 1.05 million units, representing an annual growth rate of 54.1%.

 

Taipei, Taiwan, February 14, 2022—In 2021, the German electric vehicle (EV) market was second only to China, with 681,410 units registered and an annual growth rate of 72.8%, making it the second-largest EV sales country globally and the largest in Europe. The German EV market was dominated by plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) until August 2021, after which it was led by battery electric vehicle (BEV), as shown in figure 1. The proportion of BEV in the German market by month was over 50% in March, September, December 2020, and June and August-December 2021. “This is because Tesla delivered a large number of cars in these months, leading to notably higher BEV sales figures than other months.”said Dr. Y.-C. Hsu, co-founder & CEO at Researcher and Research LLC.

 

Monthly EV registrations in Germany, 2020-2021

Figure 1  Monthly EV registrations in Germany, 2020-2021

 

On a full-year basis, the proportion of BEV and PHEV sales in the German EV market in 2021 was 52.2% and 47.8%, respectively, compared to 49.2% and 50.8% in 2020. Although there was only a slight increase in BEV proportion, this turned Germany into a BEV-dominated sales country.

In terms of EV penetration, as shown in figure 1, it was on an upward trend in successive waves and reached a peak of 35.7% in December 2021, and BEV penetration also reached a record high of 21.3% in the same month. On a full-year basis, EV penetration was 26.0% in 2021, a significant increase of 12.5% compared to 13.5% in 2020, while BEV penetration was 13.6% in 2021, an increase of 6.9% compared to 6.7% in 2020.

Because Germany is one of the most important markets in the world, major automakers have located themselves there. The concentration of the German EV market is already relatively high. Based on the market share of EV in 2021, the top nine OEMs were, in order, VW Group, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, BMW Group, R-N-M Alliance, Hyundai Motor, Tesla Inc., Geely Volvo Car Group, and Ford, with a combined share of 97.1%, not much different from 97.3% in 2020. In terms of OEMs’ market share in BEV, the total of the top nine was as high as 97.4% in 2021, only slightly lower than 97.7% in 2020.

We divide automakers into three groups according to market share, as shown in figure 2. The left graph shows the share of major automakers in the EV market in 2020 and 2021, while the right graph shows the share of major automakers in the BEV market. Looking at the graph on the left, the market share of the first group is 20%-35% in 2020 and 2021, the second group is 5%-20%, and the third group is below 5%. The first group has only VW Group, the second group has six automakers, only Stellantis and Tesla have seen significant growth, and the third group has the most automakers, but only Ford saw significant growth. The graph on the right is divided into three groups in the same way, with only Stellantis and Tesla in the second group growing significantly.

 

German EV and BEV market shares by OEMs, 2020-2021

Figure 2  German EV and BEV market shares by OEMs, 2020-2021

 

“From the perspective of individual automakers: VW Group was always a standout, and its market share was far ahead of other OEMs. Only a small number of automakers grew their market share in Germany in 2021, with Stellantis, Tesla, and Ford leading the pack while Mercedes-Benz and R-N-M Alliance lost the most share.”said Dr. Hsu.

As the German government has long provided complete supporting policies for the EV industry and market, the annual growth rate of EV in Germany in 2021 was significantly ahead of the overall auto market, as shown in figure 3. However, it is worth noting that the EV market began to lose its triple-digit growth in July, with annual growth dropping to 55.0%, and then to 13.3% in October, and even a record negative growth rate of 1.8% in December.

Tesla’s Gigafactory in Germany will be officially launched in 2022, which will drive the next wave of growth in the German EV market. However, the development of the German EV market slowed down in the second half of 2021, the current EV infrastructure is not being built fast enough, and the global supply chain constraints will bring more uncertainties to the market in 2022. We, therefore, recommend a cautious view of this year’s German EV market, which is currently estimated at 1.05 million units, representing an annual growth rate of 54.1%.

 

Monthly annual growth rates for EV and passenger vehicle in Germany in 2021

Figure 3  Monthly annual growth rates for EV and passenger vehicle in Germany in 2021

 

 

Note:

Researcher and Research here defines EV as battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), with passenger car as the primary purpose.

 

 

About Researcher and Research LLC

Established in January 2020, Researcher and Research LLC determined to be one of the best research companies in the field of market and strategy to help our clients think strategically to assess business investments. We will initially focus on research of electric vehicle (EV) market and automakers’ strategy, and then expand into other areas, such as EV battery supply and demand analysis and self-driving technology research. We believe that quality research will lead to a high level of customer and we are committed to continue to invest more research resources and provide better quality research services.

 

 

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